Flood risk indices formulation based on land-use and land cover changes

Name: Chonlatid Kittikhun

LCSH: Kasetsart University -- Dissertations. Ph.D. (Water Resources Engineering) 2020

Classification :.LCCS: HD890.55.Z9.C4

LCSH: Kasetsart University -- Department of Water Resources Engineering -- Dissertations

LCSH: Land use -- Chachoengsao

LCSH: Flood control -- Chachoengsao

Abstract: Population development accelerates the changes of land-use and land cover (LULC), which considered relevant to the increase of flood severity in urban cities over the world. Understanding the impacts of LULC changes is necessary, but providing the flood risk assessment is rather site-sensitive. This study therefore focuses on the Flood Risk Index (FRI) formulation based on the LULC changes. The FRI is the multiple-criteria index linked with factors of vulnerability; exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. It represents the degree of probability of flood occurrence and damage as a scale from 0-1. Those are the factors of its exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. In order to establish FRI, local information associated with LULC has to be investigated. However, under the limitation and incompletion of the land use data, the particular techniques were applied in this study. The CA Markov model was deployed to analyze the past missing land-use data and also forecast the future of land use under the conditions of with planning and without planning. The LULC proportion changes, of the areas for forest, agriculture, wetland, and for urban, were considered. The results of LULC under different spatial-temporal changes were then applied using rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic models, in order to evaluate the flood hydrographs and flood severity in the area of the case study, corresponding to the 100-year return period rainfall. The study area, to test and evaluate the process for modifying the factors of FRI equations, is the three municipalities in Pakpanang river basin, including the cities of Pakpanang, Chian Yai, and Hua-sai. The results found that if without land-use planning in the future, the changing in these three cities may cause higher flood risk comparing with the case of cities under planning. The percentage deviation of actual LULC from the planning (FRIE/FRIP ) indicates the difficulty to reduce the flood risk. The study attempts to adjust the pattern of LULC to be close to the plan. The FRIE/FRIP of Pakpanang, Chianyai, and Hua-sai, before adjustment are 86.17%, 87.46%, and 67.06%, respectively, while the ratios after adjustment are 50.19%, 0%, and 18.33%, respectively. Meaning that these three cities need prevention and mitigation measures under the planning strategies. Finally, this research proposed the development of the appropriate guideline to adjust the LULC related to flood problems to recommend analytical steps as the guideline for the city planner.

Kasetsart University. Office of the University Library

Address: Bangkok

Email: tdckulib@ku.ac.th

Name: Suwatana Chittaladakorn

Role: Thesis Advisor

Name: Sitang Pilailar

Role: Thesis CO-Advisor

Name: Eakawit Jorn

Role: Thesis CO-Advisor

Created: 2020

Modified: 2025-07-27

Issued: 2025-07-27

วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis

application/pdf

URL: https://www.lib.ku.ac.th/KUthesis/2563/chonlatid-kit-all.pdf

CallNumber: HD890.55.Z9.C4 .C46

eng

Spatial: Chachoengsao

Spatial: Chachoengsao

DegreeName: Doctor of Philosophy

Level: Doctoral Degraee

Descipline: Economics

Grantor: Kasetsart University

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