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Saknarong Na Nakorn. System dynamics model for Dengue fever infections in Thailand. Master's Degree(Industrial Engineering). Kasetsart University. Office of the University Library. : Kasetsart University, 2020.
System dynamics model for Dengue fever infections in Thailand
Name: Saknarong Na Nakorn
Classification :.LCCS: T57.62
LCSH:
Simulation methods
LCSH:
System analysis
LCSH:
Vaccines
Abstract:
Dengue fever is a pestilence from the dengue virus in the Flaviviridae family. Mosquitoes are carriers of dengue fever, which has a large number of outbreaks in tropical countries. In 2019, 147,361 people were infected with dengue fevers in Thailand, resulting in an economic loss of US$ 38.6 million or 0.007% of Thailand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We propose a decision support tool so limited resources on public health can be optimally allocated. Our System Dynamics model is the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model. We consider the model parameters for Thailand between 2010 to 2019. The model predicts approximately 98,000 infections per year with 18.93% for the mean absolute percentage error compared with real data from the Department of Disease Control. Our model can forecast the number of infected people to select the best health policy among choices such as launch mass media campaign about dengue fever prevention, aerial spraying for dengue vector control, and vaccination. Aerial spraying policy has been the best result in reducing the number of cases in the last 10 years. Aerial spraying policy can reduce the number of infected people by 3,083 people per year. Aerial spraying policy has a moderate cost compared to other policies and very effective to destroy many mosquitos in critical areas. This model can be used to predict dengue infection in other countries, adapt to another mosquitoborne disease and can be used to test the efficiency of other policies.
Kasetsart University. Office of the University Library
Address:
Bangkok
Email:
tdckulib@ku.ac.th
Name: Juta Pichitlamken
Role:
Thesis Advisor
Name: Suwitchaporn Witchakul
Role:
Thesis CO-Advisor
Created:
2020
Modified:
2025-07-17
Issued:
2025-07-17
วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis
application/pdf
URL: https://www.lib.ku.ac.th/KUthesis/2563/saknarong-nan-all.pdf
CallNumber:
T57.62 .S25
eng
Spatial:
Thailand
Spatial:
Thailand
DegreeName: Master of Engineering
Level: Master's Degree
Descipline: Industrial Engineering
Grantor: Kasetsart University
©copyrights Kasetsart University
RightsAccess:
ใช้เวลา
-0.981346 วินาที
Saknarong Na Nakorn
| Title | Contributor | Type |
|---|---|---|
| System dynamics model for Dengue fever infections in Thailand
มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ Saknarong Na Nakorn | Juta Pichitlamken | วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis |
Juta Pichitlamken
Suwitchaporn Witchakul
| Title | Creator | Type and Date Create |
|---|---|---|
| Production planning for maintaining manufacturing facility using simulation
มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ Pornthep Anussornnitisarn;Suwitchaporn Witchakul | Lundawadee Wongpratoom | วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis |
| Activity-based costing of U-bending process : case study in boiler parts manufacturer
มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ Kongkiti Phusavat;Suwitchaporn Witchakul | Sarocha Lopakulkiat | วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis |
| A study of factors that influenced on interior road noise of passenger vehicle
มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ Prapaisri Sudasna-na-Ayudthya;Suwitchaporn Witchakul | Jittapa Aranyakanon | วิทยานิพนธ์/Thesis |